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General ReView -- Investment Profiles: 2008 P&C/Life Holdings (size: 1.22MB)
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Issue: December, 2009 Language: English
Author:
Jim Bachman
Summary:
Despite the tumult of the 2008 capital markets, most insurers' investments were not so severely impacted. The greatest sources of losses were equity holdings, a large portion due to affiliated company valuations. Fixed income write-downs, in particular as a percent of assets, were quite small. Of greater interest is mortality and annuity companies' fixed income durations continue to trail those of non-life companies.
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Equity Focus -- Focused Value Equity Management -- 4th Quarter (size: 0.68MB)
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Issue: December, 2009 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
Focused Value Equity Management is a controlled risk approach to equity value investing. This discipline seeks to outperform the S&P 500 Stock Index (and respective peer groups) with less volatility over full market cycles, through a controlled risk process. Portfolios are constructed with comparable relative P/E, P/BV, and dividend yield relative to the S&P 500 Stock Index.
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Reflections -- From Bete Noir to White Knight -- Financing the Deficit II (size: 0.63MB)
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Issue: November, 2009 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
The banking system will contribute to financing the deficit, but are mainly intermediaries that recycle rising deposits. While this is constructive for funding reasons, deposits are likely to rise because household spending is below the levels of past recoveries, creating a circular problem for a government trying to simulate a conventional recovery.
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Equity Focus -- Focused Value Equity Management -- 3rd Quarter 2009 (size: 0.44MB)
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Issue: November, 2009 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
Focused Value Equity Management is a controlled risk approach to equity value investing. This discipline seeks to outperform the S&P 500 Stock Index (and respective peer groups) with less volatility over full market cycles, through a controlled risk process. Portfolios are constructed with comparable relative P/E, P/BV, and dividend yield relative to the S&P 500 Stock Index.
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Reflections -- Financing the Deficit (size: 0.68MB)
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Issue: October, 2009 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
The U.S. governments fiscal year ended in September, and the borrowing requirement that accompanied a $1.6 trillion deficit was in fact financed without noticeable upward pressure on interest rates. The reason, however, was that households made a large shift away from risky financial assets toward Treasury bonds as the markets deteriorated. Financing the expected $1.4 trillion deficit is another issue, however, without the stock market falling again.
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Regarding Risk: Inflation and Insurance - What Lies Ahead?
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Issue: September, 2009 Language: English
Summary:
This edition of our Regarding Risk newsletter contains articles on the following topics: Inflation and Insurance What Lies Ahead?; Underwriters on Inflation What it means to the Property and Casualty Lines; The New RMS Catastrophe Models v.9; and Updates on Chinese Drywall and Wisconsin UM/UIM.
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Reflections -- Wakefulness 1, Rest 0 (size: 0.40MB)
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Issue: September, 2009 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
Government intervention in the financial system was necessary and appropriate to prevent disaster. Continued intervention in the economy, however, distorts behavior and eventually stands to raise the governments borrowing requirement and accomplish little over time.
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Reflections -- Inflation Quo Vadis (size: 0.99MB)
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Issue: August, 2009 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
If inflation is to accelerate it is not immediate, but more likely to appear over three or four years time. Insurance against it, however, is today generally attractively priced and should be purchased.
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Equity Focus -- Focused Value Equity Management -- 2nd Quarter 2009 (size: 0.78MB)
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Issue: July, 2009 Language: English
Summary:
Focused Value Equity Management is a controlled risk approach to equity value investing. This discipline seeks to outperform the S&P 500 Stock Index (and respective peer groups) with less volatility over full market cycles, through a controlled risk process. Portfolios are constructed with comparable relative P/E, P/BV, and dividend yield relative to the S&P 500 Stock Index.
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Reflections -- The New Calvinists (size: 0.57MB)
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Issue: July, 2009 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
The shock to households perception of their financial safety will make for higher savings ratesthe only question is how high. They could go surprisingly highafter all, everything else in this business cycle has come as a surprise.
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Equity Focus -- Focused Value Equity management -- 1st Quarter 2009 (size: 0.78MB)
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Issue: June, 2009 Language: English
Summary:
Focused Value Equity Management is a controlled risk approach to equity value investing. This discipline seeks to outperform the S&P 500 Stock Index (and respective peer groups) with less volatility over full market cycles, through a controlled risk process. Portfolios are constructed with comparable relative P/E, P/BV, and dividend yield relative to the S&P 500 Stock Index.
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Reflections -- House Prices: Overshooting On the Downside (size: 1.01MB)
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Issue: June, 2009 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
Residential real estate behaves as a discrete asset class, and we measure the central tendency of its value. House prices were overvalued materially by that measure, and after recent declines are around their equilibrium value. Both the current level of housing inventory and history, suggest we are headed for undervaluation before it is over.
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Reflections -- The Coming Sinophilia (size: 0.81MB)
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Issue: May, 2009 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
The capital markets have begun to take notice of Chinas emerging signs of success in restarting lending, unlike the U.S. If Asia emerges as the worlds growth venue and economies in the west cannot overcome the retarding effects of weak financial systems, securities valuations there could be revalued, perhaps significantly.
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Reflections -- The Stock Market and Valuation (size: 0.48MB)
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Issue: April, 2009 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
Valuing the stock market has become more challenging as traditional measures have in some cases become unstable. A stable long term series, however, simple it may be, suggests that long term returns are likely to be considerably improved from current levelsbut it will take several years at a minimum.
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Reflections - Investing with Leviathan (size: 0,29MB)
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Issue: March, 2009 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
The scale and complexity of governments' responses to the financial crisis is very large. While it is early to tell, it may increase the role of policy anticipation in investment analysis. Participants in the Chinese stock market have behaved that way all along.
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Assets & Liabilities 2009, Nr. 1 - Click here to order printed copy or download PDF file (size: 0,36MB)
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Issue: February, 2009 Language: Deutsch
Summary:
Inhalt: Zyklusmanagement / "Flucht in das Anlagevermögen" - Die Bilanzierung von Finanzinstrumenten im Spannungsfeld der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung im Jahr 2008 / Kostentransparenz und Beteiligung an den Bewertungsreserven in der Lebensversicherung - Wie wirkt die VVG-Reform in der Praxis? / Neue DAV-Tafeln zum Todes- und Pflegefallrisiko / Kapitalmärkte im Fokus
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Focused Value Equity management, 4th Quarter 2008 (size: 0.64MB)
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Issue: January, 2009 Language: English
Summary:
Focused Value Equity Management is a controlled risk approach to equity value investing. This discipline seeks to outperform the S&P 500 Stock Index (and respective peer groups) with less volatility over full market cycles, through a controlled risk process. Portfolios are constructed with comparable relative P/E, P/BV, and dividend yield relative to the S&P 500 Stock Index.
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Reflections - A Fault Line in Economic History (size: 0,34MB)
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Issue: January, 2009 Language: English
Summary:
The markets are making the bet that the historic government intervention in the financial system in the economy will fail. Markets are priced for persistent deflation even as the policy response is unprecedented in scale and innovation. The market consensus will likely be proved wrong over time.
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Reflections - Avalanche Coming (size: 0,20MB)
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Issue: December, 2008 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
The position of the dollar as the reference currency in the world financial system is in its sunset years, but the current borrowing program of the U.S. government may be hastening its demise.
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Reflections -- Global Margin Call (size: 0.89MB)
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Issue: November, 2008 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
The paroxysm in the capital markets is a worldwide margin call that drew in all risk assets. It puts an end to the simplistic idea of full economic decoupling that was popular until recently. The markets have been violent, but the margin call is about spent and in the near term markets are likely to recover.
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Focused Value Equity Management, 3rd Quarter 2008 (size: 0.25MB)
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Issue: October, 2008 Language: English
Summary:
Focused Value Equity Management is a controlled risk approach to equity value investing. This discipline seeks to outperform the S&P 500 Stock Index (and respective peer groups) with less volatility over full market cycles, through a controlled risk process. Portfolios are constructed with comparable relative P/E, P/BV, and dividend yield relative to the S&P 500 Stock Index.
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Reflections -- Eating the Seed Corn (size: 0.19MB)
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Issue: October, 2008 Language: English
Summary:
The measures taken by the U.S. government will work to stem the financial crisis, because the U.S. can substitute its balance sheet and putatively infinite borrowing capacity for private balance sheets that are stressed. This remedy will not be available, at least on such attractive terms, forever.
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Reflections -- Decoupling Is Dead, Long Live Decoupling (size: 0.31MB)
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Issue: September, 2008 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
The idea that global economic growth had become less integrated is now pretty well discredited. However, that does not mean that significant differences in growth rates will not persist as some countries have recessions while others, particularly in Asia, will continue to grow.
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MaRisk auch ein Muss für Pensionskassen? - Vom Pensionskassenforum der Gen Re Capital (size: 0,01MB)
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Issue: August, 2008 Language: Deutsch
Summary:
Am 17.07.2008 veranstaltete die Gen Re Capital ein Pensionskassen-Forum mit dem Motto: Es kommt nicht darauf an, die Zukunft vorauszusehen, sondern auf die Zukunft vorbereitet zu sein. Welche gesetzlichen Änderungen und Regularien die Pensionskassen zukünftig erfüllen müssen, wird wahrscheinlich erst die Praxis zeigen. Die Mehrzahl der Pensionskassen wappnet sich vorausschauend für die kommenden Anforderungen.
Versicherungswirtschaft, 01.08.2008
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Focused Value Equity Management, 2nd Quarter 2008 (size: 0.17MB)
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Issue: July, 2008 Language: English
Summary:
Focused Value Equity Management is a controlled risk approach to equity value investing. This discipline seeks to outperform the S&P 500 Stock Index (and respective peer groups) with less volatility over full market cycles, through a controlled risk process. Portfolios are constructed with comparable relative P/E, P/BV, and dividend yield relative to the S&P 500 Stock Index.
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Reflections -- Oil (size: 0.30MB)
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Issue: June, 2008 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
Oil prices may be going into a vertical ascent. The end of such episodes is always bad, but they can persist for longer than rationality would expect.
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Reflections -- House Prices II (size: 0.15MB)
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Issue: May, 2008 Language: English
Summary:
As the attention given the housing market has reached hysteria, one might conclude there is no bottom. In fact there is, and certain early signs have already emerged that suggest the shape of stabilization.
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Reflections -- House Prices (size: 0.47MB)
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Issue: April, 2008 Language: English
Summary:
Forecasting the depth of house price decline is guesswork. We look at it in various ways and conclude that all we can say at this point is that prices will continue to decline in the short term to clear the market. Judging the longer run, equilibrium level will remain a matter of debate.
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Focused Valued Equity Management, 4th Quarter 2007 (size: 0.36MB)
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Issue: January, 2008 Language: English
Summary:
Focused Value Equity Management is a controlled risk approach to equity value investing. This discipline seeks to outperform the S&P 500 Stock Index (and respective peer groups) with less volatility over full market cycles, through a controlled risk process. Portfolios are constructed with comparable relative P/E, P/BV, and dividend yield relative to the S&P 500 Stock Index.
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Reflections -- Subprime Mortgages and Occam's Razor (size: 0.17MB)
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Issue: December, 2007 Language: English
Summary:
Valuation of a security requires a clear understanding of how it produces earnings and cash flows. In the mortgage securities that are at the center of the current credit contraction, complexity itself played a role in widespread valuation errors.
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Reflections - The Love Affair with Risk (size: 0,30MB)
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Issue: November, 2007 Language: English
Summary:
Equity markets' recoveries from the lows of August have demonstrated the appetite for risk is alive and well, fed most recently by the expansionary response of central banks. The next manic phase in capital markets is taking shape.
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General ReView -- 2006 Investment Results: Comparisons and Holdings (size: 0.62MB)
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Issue: November, 2007 Language: English
Author:
Jim Bachman
Summary:
Individual company asset allocations, investment yields and their associated risks continue to show wide deviations from industry averages . These differences often reflect operational needs and might be the consequence of affiliation with multi-line/global operations rather than domestic property/casualty company risk capacity.
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Focused Valued Equity Management, 3rd Quarter 2007 (size: 0.29MB)
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Issue: October, 2007 Language: English
Summary:
Focused Value Equity Management is a controlled risk approach to equity value investing. This discipline seeks to outperform the S&P 500 Stock Index (and respective peer groups) with less volatility over full market cycles, through a controlled risk process. Portfolios are constructed with comparable relative P/E, P/BV, and dividend yield relative to the S&P 500 Stock Index.
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Reflections -- The Power of Mood (size: 0.27MB)
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Issue: September, 2007 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
Just weeks ago it was supposed that liquidity in financial markets was infinite. Then liquidity evaporated and endangered even previously apparently sound borrowers. In the wreckage there will be opportunity someplace.
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Reflections -- Valuation of Bonds and Stocks (size: 0.35MB)
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Issue: August, 2007 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
Bond valuation is fairly straightforward. Valuing common stocks is more difficult, and while there are both good and fair ways of doing it, the usefulness of perhaps the most attractive method is constrained by the availability of data on individual firms.
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Focused Valued Equity Management, 2nd Quarter 2007 (size: 0.18MB)
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Issue: July, 2007 Language: English
Summary:
Focused Value Equity Management is a controlled risk approach to equity value investing. This discipline seeks to outperform the S&P 500 Stock Index (and respective peer groups) with less volatility over full market cycles, through a controlled risk process. Portfolios are constructed with comparable relative P/E, P/BV, and dividend yield relative to the S&P 500 Stock Index.
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Pensionskassen ächzen unter Solvency II-Kosten (size: 0,04MB)
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Issue: July, 2007 Language: Deutsch
Summary:
Nachhaltige Veränderungen in der Versicherungsaufsicht setzen eine sorgfältige Vorbereitung in den Unternehmen voraus - Vom Pensionskassen-Forum der Gen Re Capital
Versicherungswirtschaft, 01.07.2007
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Reflections - Private Equity and the Public Markets (size: 0.22MB)
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Issue: April, 2007 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
The tidal wave of money going to buyouts of public firms is unlikely to produce excellent returnsthere are too many people doing it. Venture capital is less fashionable, but whether or not that is creating investment opportunities for public markets opportunists is unclear.
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Focused Valued Equity Management, 1st Quarter 2007 (size: 0.23MB)
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Issue: April, 2007 Language: English
Summary:
Focused Value Equity Management is a controlled risk approach to equity value investing. This discipline seeks to outperform the S&P 500 Stock Index (and respective peer groups) with less volatility over full market cycles, through a controlled risk process. Portfolios are constructed with comparable relative P/E, P/BV, and dividend yield relative to the S&P 500 Stock Index.
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Reflections - Housing: Quo Vadis (size: 0.38MB)
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Issue: March, 2007 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
The share prices of housing and housing finance firms are going in opposite directions. The unusual characteristics of this cycle, and excess credit creation in particular, suggest which of the two is the better guess.
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Focused Valued Equity Management, 4th Quarter 2006 (size: 0.28MB)
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Issue: January, 2007 Language: English
Summary:
Focused Value Equity Management is a controlled risk approach to equity value investing. This discipline seeks to outperform the S&P 500 Stock Index (and respective peer groups) with less volatility over full market cycles, through a controlled risk process. Portfolios are constructed with comparable relative P/E, P/BV, and dividend yield relative to the S&P 500 Stock Index.
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Reflections - Look East (size: 0.38MB)
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Issue: January, 2007 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
The globalization of just about everything, and financial markets in particular, mean that the sources of capital market surprises may originate anywhere. Assets from bonds to copper appreciated together last year, and while growth of Asian economies explains a great deal about such apparently unlikely traveling companions, it also implies the source of future surprises.
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EG-Umwelthaftungsrichtlinie: Umsetzung kommt in Zeitnot - Vom Haftpflichtforum der Kölnischen Rück (size: 0,04MB)
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Issue: October, 2006 Language: Deutsch
Author:
Michael Köhler
Summary:
Die wesentlichen Inhalte der Umwelthaftungs-Richtlinie aus der Sicht der Versicherungswirtschaft / Nichts Neues oder bahnbrechender Fortschritt - Umsetzung der Umwelthaftungsrichtlinie in Deutsches Recht / Naturwissenschaftliche Aspekte des USchadG und neue Anforderungen an die Schadenregulierung / Versicherungstechnische Probleme und erste Überlegungen im GDV für unverbindliche Musterbedingungen gemäß EU-Richtlinie 2004/35 / Haftungsrisiken nach dem USchadG: Risikobewertung und Underwriting - Erste Ansätze
Versicherungswirtschaft, 15.10.2006
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Reflections - Noise and Time (size: 0.31MB)
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Issue: October, 2006 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
It is natural for people to act upon the events of the moment and on their perceptions of the moment. But events and perceptions are transitory. The result is that much of what happens in the financial markets is random in the short termbut not in the long run.
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Reflections - How High Interest Rates? (size: 0.21MB)
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Issue: August, 2006 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
The markets have suddenly come to the realization that interest rates did not fully consider the risk of upward price pressure. Interest rates may overshoot on the upside, but bonds are now in the range of fair value.
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Focused Value Equity Management, 2nd Quarter 2006 (size: 0.20MB)
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Issue: July, 2006 Language: English
Summary:
Focused Value Equity Management is a controlled risk approach to equity value investing. This discipline seeks to outperform the S&P 500 Stock Index (and respective peer groups) with less volatility over full market cycles, through a controlled risk process. Portfolios are constructed with comparable relative P/E, P/BV, and dividend yield relative to the S&P 500 Stock Index.
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Regarding Risk: Enterprise Risk Management
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Issue: June, 2006 Language: English
Summary:
This edition of Regarding Risk contains articles on the importance of Enterprise Risk Management, what your company can do to plan for a health pandemic and a discussion of catastrophe planning.
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Reflections - All Rise (size: 0.29MB)
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Issue: March, 2006 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
The simultaneous ascent of so many asset markets around the world is striking, and likely temporary. Such general enthusiasm is an environment in which pricing errors are probable.
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Reflections - Cash Wins Over Time (size: 0.20MB)
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Issue: February, 2006 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
The cash components of the return from equities continues to improve, and thus the premium one must pay for growth is falling, which is striking given the relatively good performance of corporate earnings over the last three years.
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Zunehmende Nachfrage nach Langläufern (size: 0,16MB)
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Issue: February, 2006 Language: Deutsch
Summary:
Im Rahmen des EU-weiten Projekts Solvency II kommt es zur Zeit in mehreren europäischen Ländern zu regulatorischen Neuerungen für institutionelle Anleger. Dazu gehören auch risikosensiblere Kapitalanforderungen, bei denen es hauptsächlich um eine markt- und realitätsnahe Bewertung der Aktiva und vor allem der Passiva von Versicherungsunternehmen und versicherungsähnlichen Institutionen geht. Dabei sollte der Marktwert der Aktiva stets den Marktwert der versicherungstechnischen Passiva übersteigen. Es zeigt sich allerdings, dass die Duration der Passiva die Duration der Aktiva zum Teil deutlich übertrifft. Eine Angleichung von aktiv- und passivseitiger Duration wird somit erforderlich. Die neuen Vorschriften dürften somit Anreize setzen, verstärkt langlaufende Rentenpapiere zur Verlängerung der aktivseitigen Duration nachzufragen und volatile Anlageklassen zu meiden. Diese schärferen Risikoauflagen dürften auch gesamtwirtschaftliche Auswirkungen haben und zu Veränderungen der Marktstruktur führen.
Dieser Artikel stellt dar und untersucht, was für ein Markt festverzinslicher langlaufender Wertpapiere sich heute den Anlegern in der Euroregion bietet und welche Auswirkungen die Einführung der neuen, EU-weiten Regulierungsstandards auf die Euro-Rentenmärkte bereits hat und zukünftig haben könnte.
Versicherungswirtschaft, 01. 02. 2006
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Gen Re Capital: Duration Gap - Aktives Risiko der Versicherung (size: 0,01MB)
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Issue: January, 2006 Language: Deutsch
Author:
Christian Finke
Summary:
Bei dieser Kundenveranstaltung der Gen Re Capital wurden aktuelle Kapitalmarktthemen aufgegriffen: Unterschiedliche Durationskonzepte zur Berechnung der Zinssensivität bei Rentenportfolios / Regulatorische Anforderungen an die Kapitalanlage von Versicherungsunternehmen / Wesen und Bedeutung des Duration Gap / Strategien zur Durationsverlängerung der Aktiva / Entwicklung von Versicherern und Kapitalmärkten bei Asset-Liability-Match / Unterschiedliche Strategien bei Investoren, Ratingagenturen und Journalisten
Versicherungswirtschaft, 01.01.2006
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Focused Value Equity Management, 4th Quarter 2005 (size: 0,24MB)
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Issue: December, 2005 Language: English
Summary:
Focused Value Equity Management is a controlled risk approach to equity value investing. This discipline seeks to outperform the S&P 500 Stock Index (and respective peer groups) with less volatility over full market cycles, through a controlled risk process. Portfolios are constructed with comparable relative P/E, P/BV, and dividend yield relative to the S&P 500 Stock Index.
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Focused Value Equity Management, 3rd Quarter 2005 (size: 0.22MB)
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Issue: December, 2005 Language: English
Summary:
Focused Value Equity Management is a controlled risk approach to equity value investing. This discipline seeks to outperform the S&P 500 Stock Index (and respective peer groups) with less volatility over full market cycles, through a controlled risk process. Portfolios are constructed with comparable relative P/E, P/BV, and dividend yield relative to the S&P 500 Stock Index.
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Reflections - Preparing For Turbulence (size: 0.49MB)
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Issue: December, 2005 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
The risky assets that are more distant in time from their last serious contraction are in many cases at speculative levels. The recent signs of slowing housing markets in the U.S. suggest that the best returns to aggressive risk taking are now past.
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General ReView - 2004 Property/Casualty Investment Results: Some New Looks (size: 0.36MB)
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Issue: November, 2005 Language: English
Author:
Jim Bachman
Summary:
This article addresses property/casualty insurers' 2004 investment results. The first section comments upon fixed income portfolio duration management and risk-adjusted returns. The second and third sections update many of the prior year's charts and tables for fixed income and equity holdings, respectively. The fourth section provides a quick summary.
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Reflections - Risk Management and Valuation Discipline (size: 0.16MB)
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Issue: September, 2005 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
The recent report of the Counterparty Risk Management Policy Group II surveyed the state of risk management at seven years after Long Term Capital's collapse. Paradoxically, if only plausible risks are considered, as the report suggests, an investor ignores just the outcomes that can kill him.
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Focused Value Equity Management, 2nd Quarter 2005 (size: 0.25MB)
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Issue: August, 2005 Language: English
Summary:
Focused Value Equity Management is a controlled risk approach to equity value investing. This discipline seeks to outperform the S&P 500 Stock Index (and respective peer groups) with less volatility over full market cycles, through a controlled risk process. Portfolios are constructed with comparable relative P/E, P/BV, and dividend yield relative to the S&P 500 Stock Index.
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Regarding Risk: Dynamic Financial Modeling -- Measuring Risk for Better Decisions (size: 0.53MB)
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Issue: May, 2005 Language: English
Summary:
**Available as a PDF only. Hard copies no longer available.** This newsletter about risk discusses the uses and benefits of Dynamic Financial Modeling (DFA), underwriting G/L for contractors, new EPLI products, and a variety of recent Gen Re research and industry developments, including Gen Re's chronic pain study, obesity claims, business interruption, youthful drivers, and our new management seminar series launched this month.
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Focused Value Equity Management, 1st Quarter 2005 (size: 0.25MB)
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Issue: May, 2005 Language: English
Summary:
Focused Value Equity Management is a controlled risk approach to equity value investing. This discipline seeks to outperform the S&P 500 Stock Index (and respective peer groups) with less volatility over full market cycles, through a controlled risk process. Portfolios are constructed with comparable relative P/E, P/BV, and dividend yield relative to the S&P 500 Stock Index.
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CapitalAspects 2005, Nr. 6 (size: 0,19MB)
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Issue: February, 2005 Language: Deutsch
Authors:
Irene Schepp,
Winfried Senges
Summary:
Die Einnahmen der gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung (GKV) reichen nicht mehr aus, um die Ausgaben im Gesundheitssystem zu decken. Als Basismodelle einer künftigen Finanzierung des Gesundheitswesens werden derzeit die Kopfpauschale und die Bürgerversicherung diskutiert. Bei beiden Finanzierungsmodellen könnte die PKV als substitutive private Krankenversicherung geschwächt werden und nur noch Geschäftsmöglichkeiten im Zusatzversicherungsbereich finden.
Welche Auswirkungen würde dies auf ein privates Krankenversicherungsunternehmen und seine Kunden haben? In der neuesten Ausgabe von CapitalAspects haben wir versucht, diese Frage anhand eines mit unserer ALM-Software ALM.IT modellierten Musterunternehmens zu beantworten.
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Reflections - The Dollar and Returns to Risk Taking (size: 0.52MB)
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Issue: December, 2004 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
Like rain at a sporting event, a weak currency is the great equalizer -- for a while. Eventually, however, something must give and we expect this time the outcome will be significantly higher interest rates, with negative implications for some of the principal capital markets¿ winners.
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Reflections - The Bad Old Days (size: 0.44MB)
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Issue: November, 2004 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
Liquidity in the financial system is so abundant that pockets of speculative behavior are becoming worrisome. As the investing public again defines risk as being left behind, the real risk of principal loss is rising.
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Die allgemeine Haftpflichtversicherung, seziert und analysiert - Vom Haftpflichtforum der Kölnischen Rück (size: 0,01MB)
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Issue: November, 2004 Language: Deutsch
Author:
Michael Köhler
Summary:
Zur richtigen versicherungstechnischen Bewertung der allgemeinen Haftpflichtversicherung: Versicherungsmathematischer Ansatz, Bestandsanalyse, Prognosetechnik, Underwriting, betriebswirtschaftliche Bewertung, Anwendung der Methoden auf Beispielbestand, Solvency II, Kapitalbedarf
Versicherungswirtschaft, 01.11.2004
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Reflections - House Prices: Time To Rest (size: 0.53MB)
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Issue: October, 2004 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
The idea of a housing "bubble," as the term is commonly used particularly after the technology stock disaster, remains hyperbole. But house prices have done all that they are entitled to do in capitalizing on low interest rates. We expect a two to five year period of decelerating house prices, bottoming around a zero rate of increase for the U.S. as a whole. Certain space-constrained areas will depreciate, but are unlikely to have a recessionary effect on the economy.
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CapitalAspects 2004, Nr. 5 (size: 0,21MB)
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Issue: July, 2004 Language: Deutsch
Author:
Andreas Hogh
Summary:
Da die Zinsstrukturkurve erhebliche Auswirkungen auf das Vermögen eines Versicherers hat, haben wir die fünfte Ausgabe von CapitalAspects ausschließlich diesem Thema gewidmet. Der erste Aufsatz beschreibt die wichtigsten Faktoren, die für die Steigung und die Krümmung der Zinsstrukturkurve verantwortlich sind. Der zweite Aufsatz beschäftigt sich mit der adäquaten Modellierung von Zinsstrukturkurven im Rahmen von ALM-Untersuchungen. Hier die Themen:
Aufwärts, abwärts, konkav oder konvex: Bestimmungsfaktoren von Steigung und Krümmung der Zinsstrukturkurve / Zinserwartungen der Marktteilnehmer beeinflussen die Zinsstruktur / "Long Barbell, Short Bullet" Strategien können Konkavität unterstützen / Bond Risk Premia streigen in der Regel mit der Duration / Konvexitätsunterschiede von Anleihen als Determinante der Zinsstruktur / Gründe für inverse Zinsstrukturen / Anforderungen an eine adäquate Modellierung von Zinsstrukturkurven im Rahmen vom ALM-Untersuchungen
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General ReView - Insurers' Equity Investments: Part 2 - Special Report (size: 0.16MB)
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Issue: May, 2004 Language: English
Author:
Jim Bachman
Summary:
This is the second of four articles addressing equity investments by property/casualty insurance companies as of 2003. This article presents an enterprise risk framework as a means to determine an appropriate range of equity allocation. General ReView, published by General Re-New England Asset Management,Inc., (GR-NEAM) provides review and comment on current investment and capital management subjects impacting the insurance industry.
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Reflections - Housing Prices Revisited: The Problems are in Housing Finance (size: 0.96MB)
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Issue: April, 2004 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
House prices appreciated 8% in 2003, a rate that approaches the top of the historic band. While higher interest rates will likely reduce price increases significantly, perhaps to zero, housing is not generally a bubble as the media may suggest. Housing finance, however, is a product of capital markets where liquidity is currently enormous, and does show certain signs of real excess. It is there, and in housing markets they fund, that we will likely observe the worst hangovers.
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Stille Lasten im Rentenbereich (size: 0,04MB)
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Issue: February, 2004 Language: Deutsch
Summary:
Angesichts der negativen Wahrnehmung stiller Lasten durch Aufsichtsgremien, Kunden, Ratingagenturen und Presse weigern sich viele Versicherer, Inhaberpapiere und Rentenfonds in das Anlagevermögen einzubuchen, um sich auf diese Weise vor Abschreibungen zu schützen. Dabei lassen sich aus § 341 b HGB unter bestimmten Voraussetzungen Vorteile für die Effizienzsteigerung des Portfolios gewinnen.
Versicherungswirtschaft, 01.02.2004
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General ReView - Insurers' Equity Investments: Part 1 - Special Report (size: 0.08MB)
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Issue: February, 2004 Language: English
Author:
Jim Bachman
Summary:
This is the first of four articles addressing equity investments by property/casualty insurance companies as of 2002. This article profiles equity ownership and the attributes of the holdings. General ReView, published by General Re-New England Asset Management,Inc., (GR-NEAM) provides review and comment on current investment and capital management subjects impacting the insurance industry.
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General ReView - Enterprise-Based Investment Benchmarks - An Unbiased Solution (size: 0.09MB)
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Issue: January, 2004 Language: English
Author:
Jim Bachman
Summary:
Increasingly, investment professionals recognize the pitfalls of traditional investment management benchmarks conventionally applied to insurance company asset management. In this article, we introduce EBIB Enterprise Based Investment Benchmarks™, which reflect individual insurer's business dynamics and multiple success drivers in conjunction with the entire spectrum of insurer eligible capital market opportunities.
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Reflections - The Price of Confidence (size: 0.08MB)
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Issue: October, 2003 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
The growth expected in the price of a security and its risk are inseparable. The greater the projection of growth, the farther into the future the payoff is delayed, and thus the greater the risk. Some typical ways of valuing securities thus draw a distinction where a distinction does not exist.
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CapitalAspects 2003, Nr. 4 (size: 0.23MB)
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Issue: October, 2003 Language: Deutsch
Summary:
Die vierte Ausgabe von CapitalAspects behandelt Asset Liability Management für Kompositversicherer - Ganzheitliches Risikomanagement in der Schaden-/Unfallversicherung:
ALM für die Kompositversicherung? / Das Risiko im Schadengeschehen und Glättung durch Rückversicherung / Aktiva und Kapitalmarkt / Das Gesamtunternehmen in der Modellierung / Die PRIMUS AG - ein deutscher Musterversicherer / Die Unternehmensziele und deren Einfluss auf die Ergebnisse der ALM-Modellierung / Erste Ergebnisse für die PRIMUS AG / Unternehmensstrategien im ALM-Test / Die Ergebnisse der ALM-Modellierung und mögliche Handlungsalternativen / Fazit
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Reflections - Revisiting House Prices (size: 0.11MB)
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Issue: September, 2003 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
We further explore the question of whether or not housing prices have risen at dangerous rates in recent periods. A related question is whether the recent rapid rise in interest rates when combined with the secular change in households¿ ability to draw equity from the value of their residences poses a threat to economic growth.
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Reflections - The Return of Speculation in Financial Assets (size: 0.07MB)
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Issue: August, 2003 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
The public is again expressing its appetite for risk taking in aggressive financial assets, which have risen rapidly on the vast quantity of liquidity sloshing around the financial system. The business characteristics of those firms have not improved from the last time the investing public expressed their asset preferences in this way, and we expect the outcome to be similar.
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General ReView - Life/Health Fixed Income Investments - 2002 (size: 0.08MB)
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Issue: June, 2003 Language: English
Author:
Jim Bachman
Summary:
This issue examines results and trends in recent fixed-income performance of the life/health industry. It finds an overall decrease in yields and a decline in portfolio credit quality. It also reviews industry diversification levels and highlights the key factors of portfolio diversification.
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Reflections - Opportunity in Utilities (size: 0.08MB)
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Issue: November, 2002 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
**Available as PDF only. Hard copies no longer available.** The over-investment in electrical generating capacity in the 1990s has caused a severe reaction in the valuation of utilities, which is finally an opportunity.
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General ReView - Life/Health Fixed-Income Investments - 2001 (size: 0.06MB)
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Issue: October, 2002 Language: English
Author:
Jim Bachman
Summary:
**Available as PDF only. Hard copies no longer available.** This issue examines results and trends in recent fixed-income performance of the life/health industry. It notes an overall decrease in yields and a decline in portfolio credit quality. It also highlights the tension between the drive for portfolio yield and the risk consequences involved.
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CapitalAspects 2002, Nr. 3 (size: 0.44MB)
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Issue: August, 2002 Language: Deutsch
Authors:
Andreas Hogh,
Winfried Senges
Summary:
Die dritte Ausgabe von CapitalAspects behandelt Asset Liability Management für Lebensversicherer:
ALM: Fragen des Managements - Antworten aus der Modellierung / Modellierung aus der Sicht des Aktuars ... und aus der Sicht des Kapitalanlegers / Planung für das Gesamtunternehmen - Wo liegen die Risiken? / Unternehmensstrategien im Vergleich / Die Technik hinter den Analyses: ALM.IT
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Insurance Asset Management - Click here to order printed copy or download PDF file (size: 0,10MB)
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Issue: February, 2002 Language: Deutsch
Author:
Norbert Kranz
Summary:
Insurance Asset Management - Integrierte Kapitalanlage und Risikosteuerung für Versicherer: Einleitung / Insurance Asset Management / Erfahrungen aus den ersten Mandaten / Asset Liability- und Managementprozesse / Management des Direktbestands / Benchmarking / Performancemessung, Reporting, Risikocontrolling / Kosten / Zusammenfassung
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CapitalAspects 2001, Nr. 2 (size: 0.28MB)
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Issue: August, 2001 Language: Deutsch
Authors:
Susanne Schiebschick,
Dirk Vatter,
John Connolly
Summary:
In der zweiten Ausgabe von CapitalAspects geht es um ein modernes Rentenmanagement speziell für die deutsche Versicherungswirtschaft.
Das Anlageumfeld der deutschen Versicherer hat sich in den letzten Jahren stark gewandelt. Unserer Überzeugung nach besteht die zentrale Herausforderung für die einzelnen Unternehmen darin, eine Diversifikation der traditionellen "deutschlandlastigen" Portefeuilles vorzunehmen. Mit dieser Studie wollen wir die verschiedenen Aspekte beleuchten, die mit einer derartigen Neuausrichtung verbunden sind: Die Bedeutung von Rentenpapieren für die deutsche Versicherungswirtschaft / Kapitalanlagen in der Versicherungswirtschaft - der aktuelle Trend / Notwendige Umstrukturierungen im Direktbestand / Rentenmanagement in der Praxis - Plädoyer für einen strukturierten Investmentprozess
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Reflections - Calpine and Entergy (size: 0.12MB)
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Issue: July, 2001 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
**Available as PDF only. Hard copies no longer available.** Stockholders must distinguish carefully among businesses when they pay premiums for growth; sometimes it is the premium itself that fuels growth for a period of time (Calpine and Entergy as an example).
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CapitalAspects 2001, Nr. 1 (size: 0.22MB)
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Issue: April, 2001 Language: Deutsch
Authors:
Karl-Heinz Adermann,
Norbert Kranz
Summary:
In CapitalAspects beleuchten wir interessante und aktuelle Themen aus dem Bereich Kapitalanlage, insbesondere aus dem Blickwinkel eines deutschen Versicherers. Die erste Ausgabe befasst sich mit unserer Anlagestrategie und -philosophie im Bereich Aktien-Management. Es werden verschiedene Aspekte der Aktienanlage beleuchtet, wobei der Schwerpunkt in der Darstellung unseres auf Kontinuität und Langfristigkeit ausgerichteten Investmentansatzes liegt: Aktien-Management: Anlagestrategie und -philosophie / Langfristiger Erfolg durch Anlagedisziplin und systematische Aktienauswahl / Risiko und Ertrag: Die Benchmark-Diskussion / Investmenstile: Passiv vs. Aktiv / Anlagephilosophien / Ansatz der GeneralCologne Re Capital
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Reflections - Oil and Gas Prices (size: 0.21MB)
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Issue: February, 2001 Language: English
Author:
John Gilbert
Summary:
**Available as PDF only. Hard copies no longer available.** The energy shock from natural gas prices acts as a tax increase that, like any other tax, depresses economic activity; oil and gas equities rarely sustain high returns over time, however.
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General ReView - Total Return Myth - An Additional Consideration (size: 0.07MB)
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Issue: October, 2000 Language: English
Author:
Jim Bachman
Summary:
**Available as PDF only. Hard copies no longer available.** This article provides two updates to prior editions. First we summarize the realized fixed income gains of the property/casualty industry in 1999; and second, we identify the yield pick-up required to recapture surplus lost to realized bond gains.
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